SMF Polling Indicates Public Backing for Higher Machine Games Duty on Adult Gaming Centres

The Social Market Foundation has published fresh polling data that shows 43 percent of the public support a Labour government doubling Machine Games Duty from 20 percent to 40 percent on adult gaming centres and casinos. This adjustment would apply specifically to Category B £2 stake machines while leaving lower-stake devices found in pubs untouched, and analysts estimate the measure could raise between £275 million and £458 million each year on top of the £600 million already collected through the existing duty. Observers note that the proposal arrives as the sector prepares for wider regulatory and tax adjustments scheduled to take effect in 2026, including measures that begin rolling out from July onward. The polling connects the tax idea to comments made by Andy Burnham, who has previously highlighted concerns that adult gaming centres often locate in areas with higher levels of economic vulnerability.

Breakdown of the Proposed Duty Increase

Current Machine Games Duty stands at 20 percent across qualifying machines, yet the Social Market Foundation analysis suggests that raising the rate to 40 percent on higher-stake equipment inside adult gaming centres and casinos would produce substantial additional revenue without affecting pub-based terminals that carry lower maximum stakes. Figures released alongside the poll indicate the extra yield could range from £275 million to £458 million annually once fully implemented, while the existing £600 million contribution from the duty would continue unchanged.

Those who have examined the data point out that the change would target machines most commonly associated with adult gaming centres rather than the broader pub estate, thereby focusing the impact on a narrower segment of the land-based gambling market. The distinction matters because Category B machines allow stakes up to £2 per spin, whereas many pub machines operate at lower limits and would remain at the present duty rate.

Connection to Andy Burnham and Future Policy Direction

Andy Burnham has spoken publicly about the clustering of adult gaming centres in certain neighbourhoods, arguing that such venues can place additional pressure on communities already facing economic challenges. The Social Market Foundation polling frames the proposed duty increase as one possible response to those observations, although the thinktank presents the findings as public opinion data rather than formal government policy at this stage.

People familiar with the timing note that the discussion coincides with preparations for regulatory shifts expected across 2026, when several tax and compliance changes are due to begin. July 2026 has been identified as a key point when some of these adjustments move from consultation into active enforcement, giving operators a clearer picture of the combined effects on machine taxation and venue operations.

Revenue Projections and Sector Impact

The additional revenue range of £275 million to £458 million would sit alongside the current £600 million collected through Machine Games Duty, bringing the total potential annual return from these machines to between £875 million and £1.058 billion once the higher rate applies. Researchers who reviewed the modelling explain that the projection assumes no significant reduction in player volumes or machine numbers following the duty rise, although actual outcomes will depend on how operators adjust pricing and machine availability.

Stakeholders in the land-based sector have begun assessing how the proposed rate change might interact with other 2026 measures, including updated compliance requirements that start taking effect from July. The combination of higher duty on Category B machines and new regulatory standards could influence decisions about machine mix, venue location strategies, and overall operational costs for adult gaming centres and casinos.

Public Opinion Context

The 43 percent support figure comes from polling commissioned by the Social Market Foundation and released in the days leading up to wider discussions about gambling taxation. While the poll records backing for the specific measure on adult gaming centres and casinos, it does not detail levels of opposition or neutral responses, leaving room for further analysis of overall sentiment.

Those tracking public attitudes toward gambling policy observe that opinions often vary depending on whether questions focus on revenue generation, consumer protection, or the location of venues. The current data provides one snapshot tied directly to the Machine Games Duty proposal rather than a comprehensive view of all gambling-related issues.

Conclusion

The Social Market Foundation polling supplies concrete figures on public support for doubling Machine Games Duty on higher-stake machines in adult gaming centres and casinos, while the accompanying revenue estimates outline the potential scale of additional funds that could reach between £275 million and £458 million per year. These findings sit within the larger framework of 2026 regulatory and tax adjustments that begin to take shape from July onward, giving operators and policymakers a defined period in which to prepare for the combined effects of duty changes and new compliance rules. The link between the polling and comments from Andy Burnham offers one perspective on how location concerns and taxation proposals may intersect as the sector moves through the coming implementation phase.